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Weekly Wealth of Knowledge - Week of 6/10/24

June 11, 2024

The Weekly Wealth of Knowledge is your download of this week's most important topics related to our community, financial planning, the markets and more!  We are continuing with June "Safety" month at MONECO Advisors. All month long we will be providing content surrounding some topics you should be aware of and the steps you need to be taking to protect you, your families, your home, and other assets. 

In this issue:

  • MONECO Insights - Safeguarding Your Digital Life (3 min read)
  • Sell In May & Go Away? (2 min read)
  • Unemployment Ticks Higher (3 min read)
  • BONUS: Annual Shredding Day and Sunset 5k Events!

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In today's world we can't escape the ubiquitous nature of digital life. While the proliferation of digital tools has come with increased convenience and efficiency, it has not come without a price. The prevalence of online fraud has unfortunately exacted a large cost on individuals, businesses, and governments. Now with the rise of artificial intelligence, these risks have become even greater. There are however some very simple tools and principles that you can abide by to safeguard your online activity, and your digital assets! Check out our blog post for more details on how to safeguard your digital life.  If you have questions, we are here for you.


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MONECO Insights - Safeguarding Your Digital Life

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Sell In May & Go Away? 

April showers brought May flowers as markets placed greater importance on economic growth and corporate profits than the “higher for longer” interest rate messages from the Federal Reserve (Fed). In fact, the S&P 500 ended May above where it ended March. So, as you prepare for summer vacations, how much should you worry about your stock portfolios?

First, based on history, stocks tend to do just fine between Memorial Day and Labor Day, with the S&P 500 rising 1.8% on average between holidays with gains 70% of the time (source: Bespoke). Also consider stocks tend to do better the rest of the year when they rise in May, with an average June–December gain of 5.4% with positive returns 73% of the time. Seasonality is not particularly worrisome.

Investing involves much more than seasonality. Looking at the U.S. economy, slower growth in the first quarter of about 1.3% is expected to be followed by a slight pickup in the second quarter. Consumer spending did slow in April as inflation remains elevated and may slow further now that excess savings from the pandemic have generally been spent. However, business investment — particularly in artificial intelligence — is helping pick up the slack. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure held steady in April at 2.8% annually but is likely to come down further over the balance of the year as the economy slows and higher interest rates continue to impact big-ticket purchases.

Corporate America has done its part in keeping the stock market well-supported, even underneath elevated valuations. Earnings for S&P 500 companies in aggregate grew about 10% during the first quarter, excluding losses incurred by a Bristol Myers Squibb acquisition. Guidance was mostly upbeat. Some retailers, such as Walmart and Target, even announced price cuts, helping fight inflation.

Political uncertainty has ratcheted higher following former President Donald Trump’s conviction. The potential market impact of the election is extremely difficult to predict, but we do know the differentiation between Trump and President Biden is widest in foreign policy, immigration, regulation, taxes, and trade, so stocks tied to those issues could see big swings. We also know from history that volatility tends to pick up in the early fall before rallying after the results, and that the economy is usually the deciding factor, so watch inflation, employment, and consumer confidence closely.

We continue to follow global headlines. The possibility of China’s military aggression toward Taiwan remains perhaps the biggest potential geopolitical shock to the global economy, given Taiwan’s strategic importance to global semiconductor production. Tariff increases are likely no matter who wins in November. Finally, we cannot dismiss potential oil shocks as the war in the Middle East rages. These risks seem manageable for the diversified global economy and financial markets at this point.

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Unemployment Ticks Higher

Last Friday's job report came with mixed data that suggests the Fed may have to reevaluate their "higher for longer" interest rate stance. Although more jobs were added than expected, the unemployment rate rose slightly. Consumers are feeling the pressure of elevated inflation, while the economy is showing cracks due to the high levels of rates. All of this makes the Fed's job difficult . The questions the Fed is pondering are whether to lower rates, and if so, by how much and how fast? As always, if you have questions, do not hesitate to reach out.

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Shredding Day & Veterans Clothing Drive

We will be holding our Annual Shredding Day on Saturday, June 15th. Come see all of your personally identifiable information get shredded right before your very eyes. In addition, we will also be partnering with Save A Suit (https://www.saveasuit.org/), a local charity based organization that collects professional attire for veterans who are transitioning back into the workforce. Feel free to register below, so we can ensure we have enough coffee and donuts or just show up!

Every ton of recycled paper saves 17 trees, so feel free to invite your friends and loved ones along!

Click to Register Today!

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6th Annual Fairfield Police Sunset 5k - Presented by MONECO Advisors

The 6th Annual Fairfield Police Sunset 5K - Presented by MONECO Advisors is set for July 17th. All proceeds will be donated to the Fairfield Police Union Scholarship Fund & the Fairfield Police Foundation. You can run (3.1 mile) or walk (1 mile) course. We were able to increase the number of participants to 1000 this year and do expect to sell out, so don't delay, sign up today for Fairfield's most memorable night of the summer! Sponsorship opportunities available via the registration link as well.

Click to Register Today!

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Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

MONECO Advisors, LLC and LPL Financial are not affiliated with any other referenced entity.

This commentary reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of the MONECO Advisors employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services by MONECO Advisors or performance returns of any MONECO Advisors client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing in this commentary constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. MONECO Advisors manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. All index data from FactSet. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.