The Weekly Wealth of Knowledge is your download of this week's most important topics related to financial planning, the markets, and our community. As we welcome in June at MONECO Advisors, our new theme for the month will be "safety". Our content all month long will focus on things you should be aware off and the steps you need to be taking to protect you, your families, your homes and your assets.
In this issue:
• Beneficiary Designations: Mistakes To Avoid (4 min read)
• Bull Market Hangs By A Thread (2 min read)
• Home Fire Escape Plan (3 min read)
BONUS: Fairfield Police Sunset 5k - Presented by MONECO Advisors
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Beneficiary Designations: Mistakes To Avoid
Many people believe that by just having an updated will, assets will pass accordingly, but this is not entirely accurate. Many assets will pass by way of beneficiary designations, so it is important to review them often to ensure your wishes are met. Here are 5 critical mistakes to avoid when reviewing them. As always, if you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out.
Bull Market Hangs By A Thread
The bull market that began in March of 2020 came dangerously close to an end. From March 23, 2020 through January 3, 2022, the S&P 500 Index gained 114% (excluding dividends). From that January 3 closing high through the recent low on May 19, the S&P 500 fell nearly 19%, narrowly avoiding the level at which bull markets end and bear markets begin.
While we wait uncomfortably to see if the S&P 500 can hold its recent lows, it is somewhat reassuring to know that bear markets that are not accompanied by recessions tend to be milder:
- Bear markets without recessions tend to last an average of about seven months, and we’re already five months into it.
- The only bear markets that took more than 46 days to bottom after the initial 20% decline were associated with recessions—1970, 1973, 1982, 2001, and 2008.
- Bear markets not accompanied by recessions have historically experienced smaller declines, losing an average of 24%.
- Five of the past six non-recessionary bear markets saw the S&P 500 lose 22% or less.
Bottom line, if the U.S. economy is able to avoid recession over the next 12 to 18 months—as we expect—then this selloff may be over soon and stocks could potentially make a run at their previous highs by year-end.
That doesn’t take away from the increasingly challenging environment consumers and businesses are facing as sky-high inflation shows few signs of relenting. Recession risk is rising, increasing the chances of a larger decline—the average recessionary bear market decline is 34.8%. The Federal Reserve has taken away the punchbowl, giving markets a hangover. The cure is lower inflation, but it will take time.
Those who believe this environment is like the 1970s, 2000-2002, or 2008-2009, may want to consider more defensive positioning of portfolios. Those are the types of environments where some companies don’t survive. But if the economy stabilizes as the Fed hikes rates to tame inflation—the so-called “soft-ish landing” Fed Chair Powell aspires to achieve—then the best path forward may be to ride this out. Market timing is hard. The sharpest rallies tend to come during bear markets and are costly to miss for long-term investors.
Investors are anxious right now and understandably so. Legendary investor Warren Buffett tells us that situations like that are an opportunity to be greedy, not fearful. Sir John Templeton, another legendary investor, tells us bull markets are born on pessimism (and grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria). Well, we have a healthy dose of pessimism right now to provide fuel for the next rally.
Buffett’s advice makes sense but is difficult to follow in practice. For those who can fight off the temptation to sell when stocks are down and have an investing time horizon spanning more than a year or two, history suggests you will be positioned to do well. Bear market recoveries prior to record highs take 19 months on average. When not accompanied by recession, they take just seven months. From a long-term investing perspective, that’s not long to wait. Please contact us if you have any questions.
Home Fire Escape Plan
As we continue with our "safety" theme for the month of June, this week we have a look at having a solid escape plan at home for you and your family in the event of a fire. It is important for all inhabitants in your home or place of work to be aware of the plan and even go as far as practicing it to ensure everyone is on the same page. Read below for some tips as well as some other steps you can take to protect your home from an incident.
Fairfield Police Sunset 5k Presented by MONECO Advisors
The 4th Annual Fairfield Police Sunset 5K is Presented by MONECO Advisors. All proceeds will be donated to the Fairfield Police Union Scholarship Fund & the newly formed Fairfield Police Foundation. You can run (3.1 mile) or walk (1 mile) course. We were able to increase the number of participants to 1000 this year and do expect to sell out, so don't delay, sign up today for Fairfield's most memorable night of the summer! Sponsorship opportunities available via the registration link as well.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.
This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.
Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
All data is provided as of June 1, 2022.
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All index data from FactSet.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
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