The Weekly Wealth of Knowledge is your download of this week's most important topics related to financial planning, the markets, and our community. As we usher in July, we kick off the theme of "independence". Our content all month long will be highlighting all of the benefits of working with an independent financial services firm like MONECO and being independent in general.
In this issue:
• Looking Forward (3 min read)
• Market Disruptions & Silver Linings (3 min read)
• 15 Tips For Women Financially Independent Women (3 min read)
BONUS: Fairfield Police Sunset 5k - Presented by MONECO Advisors
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Looking Forward
As the calendar has turned to July, investors would certainly like to forget the first six months of 2022. However, the Fourth of July Independence Day holiday does bring with it reason for celebration. Not only is it the 246th birthday of the United States of America, but July has historically been a pretty good month for stocks. Over the past 10 years, the month of July has been particularly good, with the S&P 500 Index averaging a monthly gain of about 2%.
Both stock and bond markets have been challenging this year, but it’s important to focus on what this tends to mean looking forward. Consider that after the eight biggest quarterly stock market declines since WWII, the S&P 500 rose an average of 6.2% in the subsequent quarter with gains in seven of eight quarters. Moreover, after the seven biggest two-quarter declines, stocks rose an average of 21.5% over the subsequent six months, rising every time.
Despite the market volatility, many portions of the U.S. economy remain relatively strong. However, easing growth expectations over the last few months have investors worried—we now expect U.S. real GDP growth to be around 2% in 2022. Front-and-center are the persistently high inflation readings, and while we do expect those to subside, they have lasted longer than our base-case expectations. High consumer cash balances and a relatively strong job market (3.6% U.S. unemployment rate) offset some of the growth slowdown caused by inflation. Taken together, we believe the U.S. consumer has some tools to weather the inflation storm, though we are going to need to see some near-term improvement in inflation to maintain our confidence in the consumer.
The apparent rightsizing of the historically negative correlation between stocks and bonds has been a welcomed development. For several months now both bonds and stocks have been going down in unison, a relatively rare occurrence. That price action sparked talk of the demise of the typical 60/40 stock bond portfolio—a conjecture that we believe is overdone. Nonetheless, the dual weakness in stocks and bonds has been decidedly uncomfortable for many. This relationship has been normalizing in recent weeks, indicating some reappearance of the historical pattern. Notably, the Federal Reserve’s policy response on inflation will be an important barometer here. However, long-term rates do historically tend to peak prior to the Fed ending its interest rate hiking campaigns, which could be good news for bonds in the coming months.
In terms of the stock market, we believe some reprieve from the price pressure could be in the offing. Many indicators are pointing to oversold conditions, although evidence of complete capitulation remains spotty. In our view, any good news on the inflation front could spark a rally. This may come to pass, especially if a recession can be averted in 2022 as we expect. Should the U.S. economy indeed fall into recession, the consensus is indicating a shallow recession may be a likely outcome. Meanwhile, we are indeed on-guard for an improved monthly inflation reading that could help revive the bulls. Maybe America’s recent birthday can kick-start some optimism. Please contact us if you have any questions.
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Market Disruptions & Silver Linings
It's hard these days to pull some positive news from the market's first half of the year. But despite the volatility that we have all experienced, there are some silver linings that we can draw on for those that have a long term financial plan in place. Read below to find out and as always, if you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out.
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15 Tips For Women Financially Independent Women
Keeping with our theme of "independence" month this July, we look at how women specifically can remain financially independent even after a life event occurs. Having a long term plan in place is always the best idea, but all of us know that even the most well thought out plans can change. Death, divorce or illness can force even the best plan to pivot. Here are 15 tips for women to become/remain financially solvent even when life changes present themselves. If we can assist in anyway, do not hesitate to reach out.
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Fairfield Police Sunset 5k Presented by MONECO Advisors
The 4th Annual Fairfield Police Sunset 5K is Presented by MONECO Advisors. All proceeds will be donated to the Fairfield Police Union Scholarship Fund & the newly formed Fairfield Police Foundation. You can run (3.1 mile) or walk (1 mile) course. We were able to increase the number of participants to 1000 this year and do expect to sell out, so don't delay, sign up today for Fairfield's most memorable night of the summer! Sponsorship opportunities available via the registration link as well.
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This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
All data is provided as of July 5, 2022.
Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.
All index data from FactSet.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.
This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.
Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.